Worst of the Worst

We've looked at the potential winners for 2018

I am now going to celebrate the 9 worst World Cup Teams since Spain 1982 - when the World Cup was expanded to 24 teams for the first time - one per tournament.

From 1930 the World Cup was only 16 teams (13 in 1930) and as the game expanded the need to add more teams from more continents to make sure the World Cup was not just a Europe vs South America tournament and the competition was developed to be more global.

At the time just getting to a World Cup and being one of those 16 teams was a great achievement so I am going to just use teams from the expansion from the original format.

It was the right thing to do for the future of the tournament and I actually like the symmetry of the current 32 teams format with the top two of the 8 groups going through so we don't have the best 3rd place teams calculations again or the stupid 2nd round robin groups like in 1982.

But now there will an expansion to 48 teams from 2026 which will really start to dilute the quality. Whilst expanding the guest list and excitement.  But it does mean we will have an extra 16 teams that will be worst than the teams below.

At the end of every tournament Fifa rank the finalist from winner to worst. they have also retrospectively done this for previous tournament.

I'm going to go through those worst ranked teams and then work out who is the worst of the worst.

Spain 1982

El Salvador

P3 W0 D0 L3  GF1  GA13

It feels pretty tough to put La Selecta on here as from the start they were handicapped from the start by their federation and really bad organisation.

First of all, El Salvador took  only 20 players to the World Cup. Their Federation decided to take so many members of the Federation, as well as the friends and family of those member they spent so much money they couldn't afford to bring a full 22-man squad.

The team took many detours and stops throughout Europe under the direction of the Federation, taking a few days to arrive in Spain and were the last team to do so. Once arrived, there was more trouble. Someone stole the balls that the team would train with and they had never had a chance to watch the first team they were playing Hungary. The went on lose 10-1. A World Cup record

After the match, the coach was dismissed immediately and the following matches against Belgium and Argentina were managed by the players and were much improved only losing 1-0 and 2-0.

Mexico 1986

Canada

P3 W0 D0 L3  GF0  GA5

Tough to put these guys here but they were ranked 24th in the 1986 World Cup. A miracle they even made it with the state of North American football at that time.

They gave the French a real go in the first game -Platini et al - before losing 1-0, look at the first few second of this. (And stay for Papin's miss). Very brave efforts in all three games going down 2-0 to both Hungary and the USSR. Just goes to show the quality in 1986 was so high.

Italy 90

United Arab Emirates

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF2  GA11

The UAEs one and only appearance. Just qualifying was an amazing success in the AFC tournament in Singapore. Beating teams ranked far higher than them with Adnan Al Talyani being the star player.

Roundly beaten in Group D by West Germany, Yugoslavia and Colombia. Coached by Brazilian legend Carlos Alberto Parreira who had managed Kuwait in 1982 and went on to manage Brazil to win the World Cup in 1994.

It seems churlish to put them here because of the struggles to get there but they well beaten but did score 2 goals and that stops me putting them forward for the worst of the worst.

USA 94

Greece

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF0  GA10

Greece qualified for the first time on the back of a solid performance winning their qualifying group. There were some mitigating circumstances. The group initially featured Yugoslavia as the 2nd seed who were then suspended by Fifa and initially had the Soviet Union as the No.1 seed which then with the political upheaval turned in the CIS and finally to Russia. I am not saying they should not have been there. Just that it was easier that the draw had initially suggested,

But at the tournament their low goal scoring (they only scored 10 in 8 games in qualifying) came back to haunt them and they failed to score and their defensive strength was shown up against stronger opponents. The footnote was obviously they were the opponents when this happened:

France 1998

USA

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF1 GA 5

Just to show the quality of France 1998 that a USA team that played well in all 3 games was ranked 32nd out of the 32. Similar to their North America counterparts from 1986 they are very unlucky to be ranked last at this World Cup. But they lost all 3 games including to Iran which must have stung and a close game against Yugoslavia.

South Korea and Japan 2002

Saudi Arabia

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF0 GA12

The main issue was the 8-0 destruction at the hands of Germany but also losing 3-0 to Ireland with a 1-0 lose to Cameroon squeezed between. But even by AFC teams several Saudi supporters think this is the worst Saudi Arabia team that qualified for the World Cup. All the other times they qualified they at least got a draw this was a whitewash.

Germany 2006

Serbia & Montenegro

P3 W0 D0 L3  GF2  GA10

Much like Saudi Arabia they ran into a seeded team, this time Argentina, on a very good night and got smashed 6-0 including this beauty. A horrible group again did not help them. Previous to this they had qualified as winners of their group over Spain by only conceding 1 goal in 10 games with the "Famous Four" at  the back including  Nemenja Vidic from Manchester United.

They had started with a narrow 1-0 lose to the favourites The Netherlands and then in the final game they went 2-0 up to Ivory Coast had a man sent off and then managed to lose 3-2. They were a team packed with talent that never got going. I would see this team as the best of the worst listed here and probably put them against the USA 98 team in the best of the worst play off. I am sure they are still working out quite how it all went wrong.

South Africa 2010

North Korea

P3 W0 D0 L3  GF1  GA12

I had genuinely forgotten they even qualified. But they did and even adding an extra striker instead of the 3rd goalkeeper didn't help them. Tough group with Brazil and Portugal. They made a good fist of the first game against Brazil losing 2-1. But seemed like that was all they had - going on to get a 7-0 hammering from Portugal and beaten 3-0 by Ivory Coast.

Brazil 2014

Cameroon

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF1  GA9

It seems a long way from 1990. Lost their opening game 1-0 to Mexico then on the end of two beatings from Brazil 4-1 and Croatia 4-0. But to be honest that was a very difficult group vs another African qualifier Ivory Coast who got Greece, Colombia and Japan. So not really a contender for worst ever.


Worst of the Worst?

So who will be the worst team out of these? They all made a fist of at least one of the games. But some were stacked in impossible groups. Others were never recovered from a mauling from a top tier team. My choice would be the Saudi Arabia team from 2002. 3 loses, no goals, 12 conceded plus the fact unlike El Salvador or North Korea they had been there before and had played well so there was no excuses and no heroics just getting there.

2018

So looking forward to this summer - who will be the 10th worst of the worst team. Is there a chance that a team will be worse that all of these? We are looking for 3 loses and over 10 goals conceded with a chance to get smashed by a top tier team.

The way the teams have been seeded has meant there is no small team with 3 giants. But Panama lost 4-0 to the USA in qualifying so there is a chance that Belgium with all their attacking talent could do a job on them. But also a chance they will win vs Tunisia and cause England problems. Australia look over matched in Group C but the grit and determination they show will mean they will give 100% not to get smashed.

We'll find out in 20 days.

Red Hot Favourite

Red Hot Favourite

Now living in England one of the few reference points I had growing up for betting was the Grand National, the biggest horse race of the year held in Aintree. The one fact I remembered through the mists of time was the favourite never won.

It started me thinking about whether the team that went off as the favourite ever wins the World Cup. And if there was any value to be had betting just the straight up winner from the favourite and whether there was a pattern in the odds.

I cannot guarantee these odds were as the tournament kicked off as some of them are from previews printed in mid-May. But usually there is not a team that comes out of nowhere to be listed in the top 5 teams. I have worked up the thinking from these odds. But if anyone has different evidence let me know.

Spending some time trawling on the internet and my own World Cup magazine collection I can go back as far as 1982.

Also - just as an aside where the English based press or bookmakers had England at crazy low odds because they were being bet heavily by my patriotic countrymen - such as 2010 below where they were listed as 2nd favourites - I have removed them for everyone's dignity.

Spain 1982  (BBC preview magazine)

Brazil 9-4

West Germany 4-1

Argentina 7-1

Spain 7-1

Italy 11-1

Just as an aside and also because I personally feel something beautiful died with that 1982 Brazil team in Barcelona here is a short programme that maybe explain why they went off as favourites that year. 

Mexico 1986 (BBC Guide)

Brazil 11-4

Argentina 4-1

France 9-1

Italy 12-1

England 12-1

Denmark 14-1

West-Germany 14-1

Have also seen elsewhere that as the event kicked off Brazil drifted and Argentina were 4-1 favourites. But cannot find a list of odds other than this one.

Italy 1990  (Coral)

Italy 3-1

The Netherlands 7-2

Brazil 4-1

West Germany 6-1. 

England 10-1. 

Argentina 11-1. 

West Germany win at 6-1 but so many games in the latter stages are close. This was the last time Brazil did not make the quarter final. Argentina scrap their way to final somehow at 11-1.

USA 1994 (World Soccer Magazine)

Brazil 7-2

Germany 7-2

Italy 11-2

Holland 6-1

Argentina 17-2

Colombia 14-1

The favourites win on penalties but could well have been Italy. Even then both teams were lower than 6-1 odds. Two surprise teams Bulgaria and Sweden make the semi-finals.

France 1998  (The Times) 

Brazil 3-1

France 11-2

Italy 6-1

Argentina 7-1

Germany 7-1

The top two teams make the final and the hosts win. But they were not favourites at the time. But the Bookies had this one pretty pegged.

Japan/South Korea 2002 (Ladbrokes)

Argentina 7-2

France 4-1

Italy 6-1

Brazil 6-1

Spain 9-1

England 9-1

Portugal 12-1

Germany 14-1

Mad world cup. Did England really knock out the favourites? The top two get knocked out in the group stage. Brazil at the widest odds for over 20 years win at 6-1. The Germans make the final at 12-1.

Germany 2006 (Ladbrokes)

Brazil 11-4

Germany 7-1

Argentina 7-1

Italy 8-1

France 12-1

Italy win at 8-1. An outsider really. England were 2nd favourites here at 6-1 but have removed.  France finalist at 12-1.

South Africa 2010 (Ladbrokes)

Spain 4-1

Brazil 5-1

Argentina 9-1

France 12-1

Italy 12-1

Germany 14-1
Netherlands 14-1

Favourites Spain win (after losing their opening game) at 4-1 but Netherlands make the final after beating Brazil at 14-1. 

Brazil 2014 (Racing Post Average)
Brazil  3-1
Argentina 4-1
Germany 6-1
Spain 13-2
Belgium 18-1

Germany win at 6-1 and destroy the favourites in the semi-final. Argentina make the final at 4-1. Spain get knocked out in the group.


Other than the fact that Brazil usually go off as favourites every World Cup (six out of 9 times since 1982) the main issue is the low odds of the winners.

The winners have not had odds outside of 8/1 since 1982

1982 Italy 11-1

1986 Argentina 4-1

1990 Germany 6-1

1994 Brazil 7-2

1998 France 11-2

2002 Brazil 6-1

2006 Italy 8-1

2010 Spain 4-1

2014 Germany 6-1

Which leaves you none the wiser - as the four teams who everyone thinks are going to win are all under 8/1 anyway :

Brazil 9-2

Germany 9-2

Spain 6-1

France 6-1

But the favourite has only won twice, Spain in 2010 and Brazil in 1994 in 9 attempts.

If you follow that logic that leaves you with backing France or Spain - both at 6-1. Both previous winners. Both with good sides and good draws to the semi final stage. 

But very little value. Even so I am leaning towards Spain as my pick right now.

Prior to the 2014 World Cup The Racing Post had the average price of the winner over the last 5 tournaments as 6.36-1 but they had the runner up as 10.86-1

So the other element that might be of interest is the losing Finalists:

1982 West Germany 4-1

1986 West Germany 14-1

1990 Argentina 11-1

1994 Italy 11/2

1998 Brazil 3/1

2002 Germany 14/1

2006 France 12/1

2010 Netherlands 14/1

2014 Argentina 4/1

Perhaps a bet of making the final rather than winning the tournament would be a better value. The team I am leaning towards for that is Belgium. Currently at 12-1. If they win their group and make it past the 2nd round they are then up against Brazil in the quarter finals. But they have quality through the team and perhaps this is their year finally. They are a measly 5-1 to make the final however.

So whether you are backing the winner or the finalist it seems the odds are not on an outsider. Unless you back the team you think will get to final at wider odds and lay off the bet come the final.

However a Spain vs Belgium final is currently 40-1

If you go by history a 6-1 team beating a 12-1 team in the final seems to fit with the pattern.

It's just whether than patterns continues.