Hung, Drawn and Quarters
With less than 50 days to go to the World Cup as usual my thoughts drift towards what qualifies for a successful World Cup for most of the 32 countries.
Get out of the group? Sure
Win a knock out game? Even Better
That would therefore put you in the Quarter Finals.
I usually bet this market in World Cups and have done some historical analysis to help me make some decisions. I have also made wide ranging assumptions about who will win groups.
Since 1998 when the Tournament was expanded to 32 teams there has been 22 Teams that have made the 40 Quarter Finals slots available.
Brazil and Germany have made it every year.
Argentina 4 times out of 5 - missing out in 2002.
France and Netherlands 3 times
Spain, Italy and England twice.
Then a long list of 14 teams that have just made it once (Croatia, Denmark, USA, South Korea, Senegal, Turkey, Ukraine, Portugal, Paraguay, Ghana, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Belgium and Colombia
There is no guarantee that being Seeded gets you there - usually 5 or 6 out of the 8 seeds make it. They are in bold in figure 1. The Host is in Red and the winner in Green.
The first thing that stand out to me here is that there is always a "surprise" team. The seeds don't just flow through - no matter how logical - but outsiders make it on a regular basis.
Even if you go back further it seems a constant - Bulgaria and Sweden in 1994, Cameroon in 1990. In fact 1986 is the last time the last 8 seemed very predictable with Mexico the hosts being the only slight surprise. The fact that 1986 was the last time a non seeded team won the World Cup being the ironic situation there. Argentina driven by the magic of Maradona finishing above seeded Italy in their group thus avoiding France in the 2nd round. Argentina were not seeded despite starting the tournament as 4/1 2nd favourites.
The widest odds of a quarter finalists by year were:
2014 Costa Rica 2500 - 1 (They were 33-1 to make the quarter finals)
2010 Ghana 75-1
2006 Ukraine 50-1
2002 USA/Senegal 150-1
1998 Denmark 40-1
*Odds to win the tournament
I'm just going to pause here to show how relatively successful England are at the World Cup if you were going to grade getting to the Quarter Finals as a success. Being ranked joint 6th with Spain and Italy feels like a good result. Obviously all those other teams listed around them with more than one quarter final have won a World Cup in recent memory other than the Netherlands which is why it feels like England constantly disappoint. And the fact they have been just awful the last 2 World Cups.
So if we take the logic forward about the seeds to Russia 2018 it would seem that 3 seeded teams would miss out. Here is a view of what this could look like in figure 2.
 |
| Figure 2 |
You could easily place Portugal in place of Uruguay and England in the place of Colombia. Either way - it would be a pretty predictable final 8. And based on all the evidence above that would not seem to be likely.
So if I had to challenge myself and starting thinking outside the box - who could be a possibility for that surprise quarter final position.
I am basing this on the 2nd round opponent as much as the strength of the team. Hence Mexico who I like as a team don't get a mention here as they won't win their group (Germany will) and thus will play Brazil and lose heroically in the 2nd round. But I will take a team from each confederation and look for value. You know. Just for fun.
Poland 40-1 to win the tournament 11-4 to make the Quarter Finals.
Firstly - they are seeded. And outside of Russia would be one of my choices as a seeded teams to fail to get the last 8, so them making the quarter finals in essence should not be a shock. Yet at 40-1 and with no quarter final since 1982 it would be a "surprise". As group H is matched with Group G their 2nd round game against England or Belgium. Winnable with a finisher like Lewandowski. Maybe grinding out a 1-0. Not sure.
Denmark 80 - 1 to win and 13-2 to make quarter finals.
They have done it before in 1998 and although in a tricky group with the pivotal game against Peru (see below) up first. They have real talent going forward and pretty strong at the back. A 4-0 win over Poland in the group and the 5-1 effort against Ireland in the play-offs show their talent when on song. More importantly would most likely play Argentina in round 2 who have been in poor form and I give them a chance in that game.
Senegal 125 -1 and 8-1 to make the quarter finals
I think I actually like the Nigerian team better as an African challenger. But I hate that their opening game is against Croatia and they would need to win Group D to avoid France. Which is possible. But I think more likely is that Senegal (unbeaten in qualifying) spring a surprise against Poland in their first game and then follow up with a win against Japan. Putting them in a position to play England or Belgium. Which in my mind is a more winnable game that Nigeria vs France. I can just see Mane scoring the winner to knock England out.
Peru 150-1 and 10-1 to make quarter finals
Now we are talking. Ranked 10 in the world. You have be sure they could get a result against Denmark and then if qualified would have a 2nd round game against Argentina who they know well and drew both their games in qualifying. Beat Croatia and Iceland recently in friendlies in America. Beat Brazil in the Copa America in 2016. Not going to win the World Cup but be a good candidate for our surprise team. Argentina have shown signs of being fragile. Good Value.
Iran 200 - 1 to win 18-1 to reach quarter finals
Bare with me. South Korea being in group F are probably the best team but won't win (As I said earlier Germany will) which means the Brazil buzz saw again. Japan are in a tough group where I can't see them getting a result - similar to 2014. Australia are in an incredibly tough group. If Saudi Arabia do spring a surprise and finish 2nd in Group A they will have to play Spain. Not happening. So that leaves Iran. Only won 1 game at the World Cup (which I was at - see below) and never been to the 2nd round. Like Bulgaria in 1994 or Turkey in 2002. They were one of the first teams to qualify and did not concede any goals in the final qualifying group until the last game when they had already qualified. Open with Morocco which they could win and then try and get something from either Spain or Portugal. And then they get to play the Group A winner which could be anyone - but crucially is not one of the power house. Best I can do.
 |
| Iran vs USA 1998 |
So what are my options?
So would betting on Germany and Brazil to make the quarter finals be worth it? Considering the history and the groups that have been drawn for those two teams it would seem they are short odds to make it. In fact they are both 1/2 on to make the Quarter Finals. But seem like bankers.
I will look to back Peru with a small bet and then an accumulator of Germany and Brazil with a bigger bet. Hoping that history repeats itself. But that's just my idea. Would love to hear other peoples predictions.
Thanks for reading.
Lee
