Taking the L

To repeat as World Champion is a mighty feat.

Only done twice - once by Brazil in 1958 and 1962 and once by Italy in 1934 and 1938. A lot of people are picking Germany to do this again this summer by winning back to back World Cups.

Recently Henry Bushnell of Yahoo Sports stated he felt Mexico could beat Germany in their group. Initially I scoffed at this but the more I looked into the track record of World Cup winners in the following tournament recently the more I realised it is not as stupid as first thought.

Italy 1990

The game that starts this off is this World Cup Classic - Argentina 0 - 1 Cameroon

Fifa have the whole game on their You Tube channel and if you have some time it is worth putting on in the background as it is worth a watch. Partly to work out how the hell Cameroon didn't finish with about 7 players.

I mean this happens in the 23rd minute. Akem with a chest height boot on Maradonna. It is a straight red everyday of the week. As Saint and Greavsie point out!

Anyway. Argentina the defending champion lost. Omam Biyik rises and heads Pumpido dives over the ball. Caniggia running down the wing with three players having a go at him. You all know the story - if not watch the game.

Argentina still somehow make the Final.

USA 1994

Germany the defending champion did pretty well in their group, One draw against Spain. But they never quite looked the same team as in 1990.  Run close by Spain in the group and then Belgium in the 2nd round who had a nailed in penalty and red card for Helmer waived away. A decision so bad the referee was sent home early. Finally then losing to Bulgaria in the Quarter Finals featuring a team 9 out of the 11 who started the 1990 Final. Great for continuity but with starting line up average age nearly 30 it might have been tournament too many.

France 1998

Brazil now the champions lose to Norway in their final group game. Brazil still finished top of the group and got to the final. There is still controversy about the penalty but it seems that the referee saw something not picked up by the cameras. But Brazil were not as good as their 94 vintage and should have really been beaten by The Netherlands in the semi. Either way we add them to the list of beaten Champions.

Japan/Korea 2002

Again famously the holders get beaten in the first game by African opponents 1-0. This time it was Senegal in their first ever World Cup and a goal from Diop without the borderline assault. A France team that had been dominant to that point winning the 1998 World Cup and then 2000 Euros were favourites, they just never turned up. Not winning a game and going out at the group stage. Zidane had a thigh injury and missed the first two games. This team was back in a World Cup Final in 2006. But it was the worst performance ever by a defending champion and they failed to score a goal.

Germany 2006

Brazil steam through their group. Maximum points. 1-0 over Croatia, 2-0 over Australia and 4-1 over Japan. A 3-0 win over Ghana in round 2 (A game I was at. Ghana had a lot of great players out with cautions and Brazil were very efficient). Then they were dumped out by France at the Quarter Final 1-0. Zidane having an stand out performance and the French beating Brazil 3 times out 4 tries. There seemed little drop off from 2002 and just ran into a better team.

South Africa 2010

Holders Italy began their recent terrible World Cup downward spiral. Drawing with Paraguay and New Zealand. Then finally being knocked out in the group stage by being beaten 3-2 by Slovakia in must win game without Buffon in goal. They were again knocked out in the group in 2014 and did not qualified in 2018.

Brazil 2014

Spain did spectacularly badly - getting thrashed 5-1 by eventual finalist The Netherlands 5-1 and then 2-0 by Chile. Similar to France in 2002 and Italy in 2010 the Champion goes out in the group stage. . Were they getting old together or just a tournament too far as they had won the last 3 tournaments in a row - Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012? Maybe as  a previous winner relying on previous winning teams there was not enough young blood. If it ain't broke don't fix it.

Russia 2018

We'll see how Germany get on this summer but that is 5 out of the last 7 Holders of the World Cup have gone on to lose a group game at the next Tournament. And 3 out of the last 4 winners have gone out in first round.


And no recent team of them has gone on to defend their title. Germany are playing in Europe this World Cup and have masses of pedigree. Their B team cruised to victory in the Confederations Cup and then won the U21 Euros. They were very under the radar in 2014 in Brazil as it was a big effort for European teams to win in South America and if the right blend of youth can be brought into the team it is possible.  But history is very much against them and look out for them to join the recent winners and perhaps lose that opening game to Mexico (Mexico are currently 7-1 to win that game).

Worst of the Worst

We've looked at the potential winners for 2018

I am now going to celebrate the 9 worst World Cup Teams since Spain 1982 - when the World Cup was expanded to 24 teams for the first time - one per tournament.

From 1930 the World Cup was only 16 teams (13 in 1930) and as the game expanded the need to add more teams from more continents to make sure the World Cup was not just a Europe vs South America tournament and the competition was developed to be more global.

At the time just getting to a World Cup and being one of those 16 teams was a great achievement so I am going to just use teams from the expansion from the original format.

It was the right thing to do for the future of the tournament and I actually like the symmetry of the current 32 teams format with the top two of the 8 groups going through so we don't have the best 3rd place teams calculations again or the stupid 2nd round robin groups like in 1982.

But now there will an expansion to 48 teams from 2026 which will really start to dilute the quality. Whilst expanding the guest list and excitement.  But it does mean we will have an extra 16 teams that will be worst than the teams below.

At the end of every tournament Fifa rank the finalist from winner to worst. they have also retrospectively done this for previous tournament.

I'm going to go through those worst ranked teams and then work out who is the worst of the worst.

Spain 1982

El Salvador

P3 W0 D0 L3  GF1  GA13

It feels pretty tough to put La Selecta on here as from the start they were handicapped from the start by their federation and really bad organisation.

First of all, El Salvador took  only 20 players to the World Cup. Their Federation decided to take so many members of the Federation, as well as the friends and family of those member they spent so much money they couldn't afford to bring a full 22-man squad.

The team took many detours and stops throughout Europe under the direction of the Federation, taking a few days to arrive in Spain and were the last team to do so. Once arrived, there was more trouble. Someone stole the balls that the team would train with and they had never had a chance to watch the first team they were playing Hungary. The went on lose 10-1. A World Cup record

After the match, the coach was dismissed immediately and the following matches against Belgium and Argentina were managed by the players and were much improved only losing 1-0 and 2-0.

Mexico 1986

Canada

P3 W0 D0 L3  GF0  GA5

Tough to put these guys here but they were ranked 24th in the 1986 World Cup. A miracle they even made it with the state of North American football at that time.

They gave the French a real go in the first game -Platini et al - before losing 1-0, look at the first few second of this. (And stay for Papin's miss). Very brave efforts in all three games going down 2-0 to both Hungary and the USSR. Just goes to show the quality in 1986 was so high.

Italy 90

United Arab Emirates

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF2  GA11

The UAEs one and only appearance. Just qualifying was an amazing success in the AFC tournament in Singapore. Beating teams ranked far higher than them with Adnan Al Talyani being the star player.

Roundly beaten in Group D by West Germany, Yugoslavia and Colombia. Coached by Brazilian legend Carlos Alberto Parreira who had managed Kuwait in 1982 and went on to manage Brazil to win the World Cup in 1994.

It seems churlish to put them here because of the struggles to get there but they well beaten but did score 2 goals and that stops me putting them forward for the worst of the worst.

USA 94

Greece

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF0  GA10

Greece qualified for the first time on the back of a solid performance winning their qualifying group. There were some mitigating circumstances. The group initially featured Yugoslavia as the 2nd seed who were then suspended by Fifa and initially had the Soviet Union as the No.1 seed which then with the political upheaval turned in the CIS and finally to Russia. I am not saying they should not have been there. Just that it was easier that the draw had initially suggested,

But at the tournament their low goal scoring (they only scored 10 in 8 games in qualifying) came back to haunt them and they failed to score and their defensive strength was shown up against stronger opponents. The footnote was obviously they were the opponents when this happened:

France 1998

USA

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF1 GA 5

Just to show the quality of France 1998 that a USA team that played well in all 3 games was ranked 32nd out of the 32. Similar to their North America counterparts from 1986 they are very unlucky to be ranked last at this World Cup. But they lost all 3 games including to Iran which must have stung and a close game against Yugoslavia.

South Korea and Japan 2002

Saudi Arabia

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF0 GA12

The main issue was the 8-0 destruction at the hands of Germany but also losing 3-0 to Ireland with a 1-0 lose to Cameroon squeezed between. But even by AFC teams several Saudi supporters think this is the worst Saudi Arabia team that qualified for the World Cup. All the other times they qualified they at least got a draw this was a whitewash.

Germany 2006

Serbia & Montenegro

P3 W0 D0 L3  GF2  GA10

Much like Saudi Arabia they ran into a seeded team, this time Argentina, on a very good night and got smashed 6-0 including this beauty. A horrible group again did not help them. Previous to this they had qualified as winners of their group over Spain by only conceding 1 goal in 10 games with the "Famous Four" at  the back including  Nemenja Vidic from Manchester United.

They had started with a narrow 1-0 lose to the favourites The Netherlands and then in the final game they went 2-0 up to Ivory Coast had a man sent off and then managed to lose 3-2. They were a team packed with talent that never got going. I would see this team as the best of the worst listed here and probably put them against the USA 98 team in the best of the worst play off. I am sure they are still working out quite how it all went wrong.

South Africa 2010

North Korea

P3 W0 D0 L3  GF1  GA12

I had genuinely forgotten they even qualified. But they did and even adding an extra striker instead of the 3rd goalkeeper didn't help them. Tough group with Brazil and Portugal. They made a good fist of the first game against Brazil losing 2-1. But seemed like that was all they had - going on to get a 7-0 hammering from Portugal and beaten 3-0 by Ivory Coast.

Brazil 2014

Cameroon

P3 W0 D0 L3 GF1  GA9

It seems a long way from 1990. Lost their opening game 1-0 to Mexico then on the end of two beatings from Brazil 4-1 and Croatia 4-0. But to be honest that was a very difficult group vs another African qualifier Ivory Coast who got Greece, Colombia and Japan. So not really a contender for worst ever.


Worst of the Worst?

So who will be the worst team out of these? They all made a fist of at least one of the games. But some were stacked in impossible groups. Others were never recovered from a mauling from a top tier team. My choice would be the Saudi Arabia team from 2002. 3 loses, no goals, 12 conceded plus the fact unlike El Salvador or North Korea they had been there before and had played well so there was no excuses and no heroics just getting there.

2018

So looking forward to this summer - who will be the 10th worst of the worst team. Is there a chance that a team will be worse that all of these? We are looking for 3 loses and over 10 goals conceded with a chance to get smashed by a top tier team.

The way the teams have been seeded has meant there is no small team with 3 giants. But Panama lost 4-0 to the USA in qualifying so there is a chance that Belgium with all their attacking talent could do a job on them. But also a chance they will win vs Tunisia and cause England problems. Australia look over matched in Group C but the grit and determination they show will mean they will give 100% not to get smashed.

We'll find out in 20 days.

Red Hot Favourite

Red Hot Favourite

Now living in England one of the few reference points I had growing up for betting was the Grand National, the biggest horse race of the year held in Aintree. The one fact I remembered through the mists of time was the favourite never won.

It started me thinking about whether the team that went off as the favourite ever wins the World Cup. And if there was any value to be had betting just the straight up winner from the favourite and whether there was a pattern in the odds.

I cannot guarantee these odds were as the tournament kicked off as some of them are from previews printed in mid-May. But usually there is not a team that comes out of nowhere to be listed in the top 5 teams. I have worked up the thinking from these odds. But if anyone has different evidence let me know.

Spending some time trawling on the internet and my own World Cup magazine collection I can go back as far as 1982.

Also - just as an aside where the English based press or bookmakers had England at crazy low odds because they were being bet heavily by my patriotic countrymen - such as 2010 below where they were listed as 2nd favourites - I have removed them for everyone's dignity.

Spain 1982  (BBC preview magazine)

Brazil 9-4

West Germany 4-1

Argentina 7-1

Spain 7-1

Italy 11-1

Just as an aside and also because I personally feel something beautiful died with that 1982 Brazil team in Barcelona here is a short programme that maybe explain why they went off as favourites that year. 

Mexico 1986 (BBC Guide)

Brazil 11-4

Argentina 4-1

France 9-1

Italy 12-1

England 12-1

Denmark 14-1

West-Germany 14-1

Have also seen elsewhere that as the event kicked off Brazil drifted and Argentina were 4-1 favourites. But cannot find a list of odds other than this one.

Italy 1990  (Coral)

Italy 3-1

The Netherlands 7-2

Brazil 4-1

West Germany 6-1. 

England 10-1. 

Argentina 11-1. 

West Germany win at 6-1 but so many games in the latter stages are close. This was the last time Brazil did not make the quarter final. Argentina scrap their way to final somehow at 11-1.

USA 1994 (World Soccer Magazine)

Brazil 7-2

Germany 7-2

Italy 11-2

Holland 6-1

Argentina 17-2

Colombia 14-1

The favourites win on penalties but could well have been Italy. Even then both teams were lower than 6-1 odds. Two surprise teams Bulgaria and Sweden make the semi-finals.

France 1998  (The Times) 

Brazil 3-1

France 11-2

Italy 6-1

Argentina 7-1

Germany 7-1

The top two teams make the final and the hosts win. But they were not favourites at the time. But the Bookies had this one pretty pegged.

Japan/South Korea 2002 (Ladbrokes)

Argentina 7-2

France 4-1

Italy 6-1

Brazil 6-1

Spain 9-1

England 9-1

Portugal 12-1

Germany 14-1

Mad world cup. Did England really knock out the favourites? The top two get knocked out in the group stage. Brazil at the widest odds for over 20 years win at 6-1. The Germans make the final at 12-1.

Germany 2006 (Ladbrokes)

Brazil 11-4

Germany 7-1

Argentina 7-1

Italy 8-1

France 12-1

Italy win at 8-1. An outsider really. England were 2nd favourites here at 6-1 but have removed.  France finalist at 12-1.

South Africa 2010 (Ladbrokes)

Spain 4-1

Brazil 5-1

Argentina 9-1

France 12-1

Italy 12-1

Germany 14-1
Netherlands 14-1

Favourites Spain win (after losing their opening game) at 4-1 but Netherlands make the final after beating Brazil at 14-1. 

Brazil 2014 (Racing Post Average)
Brazil  3-1
Argentina 4-1
Germany 6-1
Spain 13-2
Belgium 18-1

Germany win at 6-1 and destroy the favourites in the semi-final. Argentina make the final at 4-1. Spain get knocked out in the group.


Other than the fact that Brazil usually go off as favourites every World Cup (six out of 9 times since 1982) the main issue is the low odds of the winners.

The winners have not had odds outside of 8/1 since 1982

1982 Italy 11-1

1986 Argentina 4-1

1990 Germany 6-1

1994 Brazil 7-2

1998 France 11-2

2002 Brazil 6-1

2006 Italy 8-1

2010 Spain 4-1

2014 Germany 6-1

Which leaves you none the wiser - as the four teams who everyone thinks are going to win are all under 8/1 anyway :

Brazil 9-2

Germany 9-2

Spain 6-1

France 6-1

But the favourite has only won twice, Spain in 2010 and Brazil in 1994 in 9 attempts.

If you follow that logic that leaves you with backing France or Spain - both at 6-1. Both previous winners. Both with good sides and good draws to the semi final stage. 

But very little value. Even so I am leaning towards Spain as my pick right now.

Prior to the 2014 World Cup The Racing Post had the average price of the winner over the last 5 tournaments as 6.36-1 but they had the runner up as 10.86-1

So the other element that might be of interest is the losing Finalists:

1982 West Germany 4-1

1986 West Germany 14-1

1990 Argentina 11-1

1994 Italy 11/2

1998 Brazil 3/1

2002 Germany 14/1

2006 France 12/1

2010 Netherlands 14/1

2014 Argentina 4/1

Perhaps a bet of making the final rather than winning the tournament would be a better value. The team I am leaning towards for that is Belgium. Currently at 12-1. If they win their group and make it past the 2nd round they are then up against Brazil in the quarter finals. But they have quality through the team and perhaps this is their year finally. They are a measly 5-1 to make the final however.

So whether you are backing the winner or the finalist it seems the odds are not on an outsider. Unless you back the team you think will get to final at wider odds and lay off the bet come the final.

However a Spain vs Belgium final is currently 40-1

If you go by history a 6-1 team beating a 12-1 team in the final seems to fit with the pattern.

It's just whether than patterns continues.

Quarter Final Analysis

Hung, Drawn and Quarters

With less than 50 days to go to the World Cup as usual my thoughts drift towards what qualifies for a successful World Cup for most of the 32 countries.

Get out of the group? Sure

Win a knock out game? Even Better

That would therefore put you in the Quarter Finals.

I usually bet this market in World Cups and have done some historical analysis to help me make some decisions. I have also made wide ranging assumptions about who will win groups. 


Since 1998 when the Tournament was expanded to 32 teams there has been 22 Teams that have made the 40 Quarter Finals slots available.


Brazil and Germany have made it every year.
Argentina 4 times out of 5 - missing out in 2002.
France and Netherlands 3 times
Spain, Italy and England twice.
Then a long list of 14 teams that have just made it once (Croatia, Denmark, USA, South Korea, Senegal, Turkey, Ukraine, Portugal, Paraguay, Ghana, Uruguay, Costa Rica, Belgium and Colombia

There is no guarantee that being Seeded gets you there - usually 5 or 6 out of the 8 seeds make it. They are in bold in figure 1. The Host is in Red and the winner in Green.

The first thing that stand out to me here is that there is always a "surprise" team. The seeds don't just flow through - no matter how logical - but outsiders make it on a regular basis.

Even if you go back further it seems a constant - Bulgaria and Sweden in 1994, Cameroon in 1990. In fact 1986 is the last time the last 8 seemed very predictable with Mexico the hosts being the only slight surprise. The fact that 1986 was the last time a non seeded team won the World Cup being the ironic situation there. Argentina driven by the magic of Maradona finishing above seeded Italy in their group thus avoiding France in the 2nd round. Argentina were not seeded despite starting the tournament as 4/1 2nd favourites.

The widest odds of a quarter finalists by year were:

2014  Costa Rica 2500 - 1 (They were 33-1 to make the quarter finals)
2010  Ghana 75-1
2006  Ukraine  50-1
2002  USA/Senegal 150-1
1998  Denmark   40-1

*Odds to win the tournament

I'm just going to pause here to show how relatively successful England are at the World Cup if you were going to grade getting to the Quarter Finals as a success. Being ranked joint 6th with Spain and Italy feels like a good result. Obviously all those other teams listed around them with more than one quarter final have won a World Cup in recent memory other than the Netherlands which is why it feels like England constantly disappoint. And the fact they have been just awful the last 2 World Cups.


So if we take the logic forward about the seeds to Russia 2018 it would seem that 3 seeded teams would miss out. Here is a view of what this could look like in figure 2.

Figure 2

You could easily place Portugal in place of Uruguay and England  in the place of Colombia. Either way - it would be a pretty predictable final 8. And based on all the evidence above that would not seem to be likely.

So if I had to challenge myself and starting thinking outside the box - who could be a possibility for that surprise quarter final position.

I am basing this on the 2nd round opponent as much as the strength of the team. Hence Mexico who I like as a team don't get a mention here as they won't win their group (Germany will) and thus will play Brazil and lose heroically in the 2nd round. But I will take a team from each confederation and look for value. You know. Just for fun.

Poland 40-1 to win the tournament 11-4 to make the Quarter Finals.

Firstly - they are seeded. And outside of Russia would be one of my choices as a seeded teams to fail to get the last 8, so them making the quarter finals in essence should not be a shock. Yet at 40-1 and with no quarter final since 1982 it would be a "surprise". As group H is matched with Group G their 2nd round game against England or Belgium. Winnable with a finisher like Lewandowski. Maybe grinding out a 1-0. Not sure.

Denmark 80 - 1 to win and 13-2 to make quarter finals. 

They have done it before in 1998 and although in a tricky group with the pivotal game against Peru (see below) up first. They have real talent going forward and pretty strong at the back. A 4-0 win over Poland in the group and the 5-1 effort against Ireland in the play-offs show their talent when on song. More importantly would most likely play Argentina in round 2 who have been in poor form and I give them a chance in that game.

Senegal 125 -1 and 8-1 to make the quarter finals

I think I actually like the Nigerian team better as an African challenger. But I hate that their opening game is against Croatia and they would need to win Group D to avoid France. Which is possible. But I think more likely is that Senegal (unbeaten in qualifying)  spring a surprise against Poland in their first game and then follow up with a win against Japan. Putting them in a position to play England or Belgium. Which in my mind is a more winnable game that Nigeria vs France. I can just see Mane scoring the winner to knock England out.

Peru 150-1 and 10-1 to make quarter finals

Now we are talking. Ranked 10 in the world. You have be sure they could get a result against Denmark and then if qualified would have a 2nd round game against Argentina who they know well and drew both their games in qualifying. Beat Croatia and Iceland recently in friendlies in America. Beat Brazil in the Copa America in 2016. Not going to win the World Cup but be a good candidate for our surprise team. Argentina have shown signs of being fragile. Good Value.

Iran 200 - 1 to win 18-1 to reach quarter finals

Bare with me. South Korea being in group F are probably the best team but won't win (As I said earlier Germany will) which means the Brazil buzz saw again. Japan are in a tough group where I can't see them getting a result - similar to 2014. Australia are in an incredibly tough group. If Saudi Arabia do spring a surprise and finish 2nd in Group A they will have to play Spain. Not happening. So that leaves Iran. Only won 1 game at the World Cup (which I was at - see below)  and never been to the 2nd round. Like Bulgaria in 1994 or Turkey in 2002. They were one of the first teams to qualify and did not concede any goals in the final qualifying group until the last game when they had already qualified. Open with Morocco which they could win and then try and get something from either Spain or Portugal. And then they get to play the Group A winner which could be anyone - but crucially is not one of the power house. Best I can do.

Iran vs USA 1998

So what are my options?

So would betting on Germany and Brazil to make the quarter finals be worth it? Considering the history and the groups that have been drawn for those two teams it would seem they are short odds to make it. In fact they are both 1/2 on to make the Quarter Finals. But seem like bankers. 

I will look to back Peru with a small bet and then an accumulator of Germany and Brazil with a bigger bet. Hoping that history repeats itself. But that's just my idea. Would love to hear other peoples predictions.

Thanks for reading.
Lee