Red Hot Favourite

Red Hot Favourite

Now living in England one of the few reference points I had growing up for betting was the Grand National, the biggest horse race of the year held in Aintree. The one fact I remembered through the mists of time was the favourite never won.

It started me thinking about whether the team that went off as the favourite ever wins the World Cup. And if there was any value to be had betting just the straight up winner from the favourite and whether there was a pattern in the odds.

I cannot guarantee these odds were as the tournament kicked off as some of them are from previews printed in mid-May. But usually there is not a team that comes out of nowhere to be listed in the top 5 teams. I have worked up the thinking from these odds. But if anyone has different evidence let me know.

Spending some time trawling on the internet and my own World Cup magazine collection I can go back as far as 1982.

Also - just as an aside where the English based press or bookmakers had England at crazy low odds because they were being bet heavily by my patriotic countrymen - such as 2010 below where they were listed as 2nd favourites - I have removed them for everyone's dignity.

Spain 1982  (BBC preview magazine)

Brazil 9-4

West Germany 4-1

Argentina 7-1

Spain 7-1

Italy 11-1

Just as an aside and also because I personally feel something beautiful died with that 1982 Brazil team in Barcelona here is a short programme that maybe explain why they went off as favourites that year. 

Mexico 1986 (BBC Guide)

Brazil 11-4

Argentina 4-1

France 9-1

Italy 12-1

England 12-1

Denmark 14-1

West-Germany 14-1

Have also seen elsewhere that as the event kicked off Brazil drifted and Argentina were 4-1 favourites. But cannot find a list of odds other than this one.

Italy 1990  (Coral)

Italy 3-1

The Netherlands 7-2

Brazil 4-1

West Germany 6-1. 

England 10-1. 

Argentina 11-1. 

West Germany win at 6-1 but so many games in the latter stages are close. This was the last time Brazil did not make the quarter final. Argentina scrap their way to final somehow at 11-1.

USA 1994 (World Soccer Magazine)

Brazil 7-2

Germany 7-2

Italy 11-2

Holland 6-1

Argentina 17-2

Colombia 14-1

The favourites win on penalties but could well have been Italy. Even then both teams were lower than 6-1 odds. Two surprise teams Bulgaria and Sweden make the semi-finals.

France 1998  (The Times) 

Brazil 3-1

France 11-2

Italy 6-1

Argentina 7-1

Germany 7-1

The top two teams make the final and the hosts win. But they were not favourites at the time. But the Bookies had this one pretty pegged.

Japan/South Korea 2002 (Ladbrokes)

Argentina 7-2

France 4-1

Italy 6-1

Brazil 6-1

Spain 9-1

England 9-1

Portugal 12-1

Germany 14-1

Mad world cup. Did England really knock out the favourites? The top two get knocked out in the group stage. Brazil at the widest odds for over 20 years win at 6-1. The Germans make the final at 12-1.

Germany 2006 (Ladbrokes)

Brazil 11-4

Germany 7-1

Argentina 7-1

Italy 8-1

France 12-1

Italy win at 8-1. An outsider really. England were 2nd favourites here at 6-1 but have removed.  France finalist at 12-1.

South Africa 2010 (Ladbrokes)

Spain 4-1

Brazil 5-1

Argentina 9-1

France 12-1

Italy 12-1

Germany 14-1
Netherlands 14-1

Favourites Spain win (after losing their opening game) at 4-1 but Netherlands make the final after beating Brazil at 14-1. 

Brazil 2014 (Racing Post Average)
Brazil  3-1
Argentina 4-1
Germany 6-1
Spain 13-2
Belgium 18-1

Germany win at 6-1 and destroy the favourites in the semi-final. Argentina make the final at 4-1. Spain get knocked out in the group.


Other than the fact that Brazil usually go off as favourites every World Cup (six out of 9 times since 1982) the main issue is the low odds of the winners.

The winners have not had odds outside of 8/1 since 1982

1982 Italy 11-1

1986 Argentina 4-1

1990 Germany 6-1

1994 Brazil 7-2

1998 France 11-2

2002 Brazil 6-1

2006 Italy 8-1

2010 Spain 4-1

2014 Germany 6-1

Which leaves you none the wiser - as the four teams who everyone thinks are going to win are all under 8/1 anyway :

Brazil 9-2

Germany 9-2

Spain 6-1

France 6-1

But the favourite has only won twice, Spain in 2010 and Brazil in 1994 in 9 attempts.

If you follow that logic that leaves you with backing France or Spain - both at 6-1. Both previous winners. Both with good sides and good draws to the semi final stage. 

But very little value. Even so I am leaning towards Spain as my pick right now.

Prior to the 2014 World Cup The Racing Post had the average price of the winner over the last 5 tournaments as 6.36-1 but they had the runner up as 10.86-1

So the other element that might be of interest is the losing Finalists:

1982 West Germany 4-1

1986 West Germany 14-1

1990 Argentina 11-1

1994 Italy 11/2

1998 Brazil 3/1

2002 Germany 14/1

2006 France 12/1

2010 Netherlands 14/1

2014 Argentina 4/1

Perhaps a bet of making the final rather than winning the tournament would be a better value. The team I am leaning towards for that is Belgium. Currently at 12-1. If they win their group and make it past the 2nd round they are then up against Brazil in the quarter finals. But they have quality through the team and perhaps this is their year finally. They are a measly 5-1 to make the final however.

So whether you are backing the winner or the finalist it seems the odds are not on an outsider. Unless you back the team you think will get to final at wider odds and lay off the bet come the final.

However a Spain vs Belgium final is currently 40-1

If you go by history a 6-1 team beating a 12-1 team in the final seems to fit with the pattern.

It's just whether than patterns continues.